5 Feb 2012


David Bonderman--Michael O’Leary’s Recruitment Scam


A couple of years ago we could have heard Michael O’Leary all over British and Irish Media constant criticism of the Irish Government for the property bubble. Mr. O’Leary seemed to have a high degree of expertise on that subject. No wonder he specialises in bubbles himself, especially in his major bubble – the Ryanair Recruitment scam.

I have prepared a simulation of how the airline logistics would have to look like if Ryanair really meant to give genuine and authentic jobs to Cabin Crew they are recruiting.

What are Ryanair annual recruitment numbers??? Michael O’Leary said on the radio that in 2011 Ryanair recruited 1000 Cabin Crew.

From the comment on the Mirror blog we can learn that Dalmac has already 11 courses planned for 2012. Probably there will be more….

If there were only 11 courses the number of Crew recruited by Dalmac in 2012 will be, give and take, 400. However I think this number will be bigger as they add extra courses throughout the year. It will probably reach 600 per recruitment agency.

I have prepared a simulation what the airline logistics would have to look like if Ryanair meant to create genuine 400 new Cabin Crew jobs per year, 600 genuine CC jobs per year and 1000 genuine CC jobs per year.

Simulation for 400 new Cabin Crew

Even if we stay at the minimum number of 400, look what happens. There are four Crew working on each flight. Now, let’s say that one crew works only 22 days a month and has 25% off days in any given month. That would mean 300 crew are operating and 100 of them are on days off at any time.

300 active crew create coverage for 75 flights at one time (there are four Cabin Crew planned on each flight). Let’s suppose all of them operate 4 sectors daily (2 x 2 sector flight). That would mean Ryanair would have to open around 150 new routes in 2012 to create a real work for these people; to create a real flight time.

Ryanair is not planning to open up 150 new destinations. That is impossible to do.

That would also mean that Ryanair would have to add 38 new aircraft to their fleet, which is also impossible. The Boeing will obviously not build and deliver 38 planes for Ryanair in 2012.

One crew operates four sectors a day. One aircraft operates 6 to 8 sectors a day. Depends on the length of sectors. Cabin Crew operate either on early or late shifts (4 early or 4 late sectors). Each aircraft can cover both early and late shifts.

To make this calculation clear. Active 300 Cabin Crew = 75 Cabin Crew teams (4 crew in each team). One team operates an early or late shift (we count each shift as two full flights or four sectors). One aircraft can cover both shifts (8 sectors). Therefore number of aircraft = 0.5 x 75.
0.5 x 75 = approximately 38.

That would also mean that Ryanair adds 38 new planes to their fleet each year, as suggested by Cabin Crew annual recruitment numbers.

Accordingly to their own web page Ryanair has 270 aircraft up to date and they have been in business since 1985, which is for 27 years. So the scale of their growth does not indicate that they add 38 new aircraft annually to their fleet. Yet they continue recruiting in high numbers.

Last winter over 100 planes were grounded.

This is very clear, Ryanair does not need 400 new Cabin Crew in 2012 because it is impossible to give them work.

Yet this 400 people will have to pay 1 200 000 Euro in total for their training. So consequently, after paying their training fees, they will be terminated.

Simulation for 600 new Cabin Crew

Let us do the same calculation assuming that the number of recruited Cabin Crew in 2012 will be 600.

So 600 recruited Cabin Crew gives us 450 active Cabin Crew at each time. This gives us coverage for 112 flights at any time. And again to give these people work would mean adding 56 new aircraft to the fleet and opening 224 new routes in 2012.
A complete nonsense. This is not going to happen. And yet again the total income from the training of 600 Cabin crew in 2012 will be 1 800 000 Euro. One million, eight hundred thousand Euro per one year.

Simulation for 1000 new Cabin Crew

If the number of recruited Cabin Crew is 1000; the figures are as follows.

Out of 1000 CC, at any one time: 750 CC are active and 250 CC are on days off.
750 / 4 = 188 full teams (4 CC in one team).

188 new teams create coverage for 376 new routes. THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE. They did not open 376 new routes in 2011 and are not going to open 376 new routes in 2012.
(Each team operates 2 routes per shift. 1 route = 2 flights = 2 sectors; one outbound and one inbound. That gives 4 sectors; 2 outbound and two inbound sectors per shift.)

On the web page they claim they operate 700 routes in total. It is impossible to open 376 extra new routes each year.

There are two shifts per day - one early and one late shift. One aircraft can operate both shifts - the early and the late one. Therefore each aircraft can operate 8 sectors max. It depends on the length of the sectors. Sometimes it will be 6 sectors a day. Nevertheless one aircraft can operate both shifts.

The number of new aircraft they would have to buy to give an actual job to 1000 CC is 94. This is absolutely impossible to produce and to deliver.

THEY DID NOT BUY 94 AIRCRAFT IN 2011. This number is impossible. The Boeing would not be able to produce that many aircraft for Ryanair in one year, it would be logistically impossible to deliver such a number of aircraft from USA in one year. It would also be probably financially impossible to buy it or to lease it.

They definitely did not buy 94 aircraft in 2011; yet they grounded 100 existing aircraft this winter.

They did not need 1000 new CC in 2011. Yet the new CC paid 3 000 000 Euro in total for their training.

By the way the number of aircraft they claim they have on their web page is not true. They wrote hey had 270 aircraft while in fact they only have 220.

Now please draw your own conclusions.

Kindest regards,

Ryanair Cabin Crew Member

John said,
I wish to thank the Cabin Crew member for this post above...As you will see Ryanair do recruitment scam young people...Not only scam them but exploit them for every Euro...Time for Shareholders to
                                                                 ''TAKE NOTE''
Share price at Ryanair will start to tumble very soon..Time has come toTerminate the whole board at Ryanair.Let us not forget a Real Important Pilot at Ryanair ''PAUL RIDGARD'' who has total respect and dignity from us all,just a shame Ryanair do not...........


Anonymous said...

There are some good points and some bad points in this calculation.
You have to remember Ryanair is good in making things look good on paper.
From their annual reports we can learn that they “took delivery” of 51 aircraft in 2010 and 40 aircraft in 2011. Does it mean that the above number of aircraft was actually delivered? Or did they send a delivery request? Or did they order these a/c to be built?
You see with Ryanair everything looks good on paper. The devil is in the detail.
It is not impossible for Boeing factory to build this numbers of a/c for RYR. My question is who delivered and who operated them in 2011?

Anonymous said...

If they delivered 40 a/c and recruited 1000 CC than John’s calculation that they terminate 60% could be quite right.

PS. For some reason John it is difficult to post via Word Press on this blog.

Anonymous said...

Anyway back to the main point.
As you know from PPRuNe 2010 and 2011 witnessed a huge exodus of RYR pilots to the Middle East.
My take is they lost approximately 600 pilots over two years. Especially in 2011 resignation numbers were very high. To the point RYR had to ground 100 a/c in winter 2011 because they had no pilots to operate.
So it is a good question indeed. Why did they recruit 1000 CC in 2011 if they did not have enough pilots to operate their already existing fleet?
O’Leary would probably respond it is due to the lack of inter-department co-operation in the corporation which is so huge. But would it be a good enough response? It is not that difficult to plan and to coordinate recruitment. It is much more difficult to control greed.

Anonymous said...

PPRuNe have compromised themselves that is true. That’s why pilots are not posting on that forum any longer.

Anonymous said...

I must say Foley is a true HEADACHE for mr bonderman & mr oleary or should i say MIGRAINE.

John Foley.... said...

Yes O'Leary is good at making it look good on paper,this is the share price SCAM......
Thank you all for your comments...